August 31, 2026

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By Lucas Bettle

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• Wind power currently makes up 11% of Canada’s installed electrical capacity, but only provides 6% of overall electricity generation.

• Canada plans to add 2,635 MW of new wind capacity by 2035 to help meet future clean energy goals.

• Wind power supplements hydro, nuclear, and gas, and could provide up to 35% of electricity demand with upgraded infrastructure.

• The capacity factor evaluates wind power’s role by explaining how much energy is actually generated compared to maximum potential.

• Wind power is an important part of Canada’s current electrical grid, and the country’s net-zero goals and planned projects point to further adoption in the future. At first glance, it may seem like the reliance on highly variable wind patterns makes wind power a poor choice. However, understanding the details behind wind power capacity and the specific role it has to play highlights how wind power is one of Canada’s most promising energy sources.

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The Current Role of Wind Power in Canada’s Electrical Grid

 

In a previous article on Canada’s electricity landscape, we detailed that wind currently represents 11% of total installed capacity, accounting for 17,202 MW. However, it only accounts for 6% of total electrical generation, 37 TWh. There are currently plans for 2,635 MW in new wind capacity installation through 2035.

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Today, wind power serves as a variable, low-emission power source that complements larger hydro, nuclear, and gas generation. However, this role could change in the future. With the appropriate transmission and energy storage infrastructure, wind power could grow to meet 20 to 35% of Canada’s electricity demand. (Government of Canada, 2024)

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Comparing Capacity Factor Across Different Energy Sources

 

When power generation stations are installed, their capacity is typically reported in terms of their nameplate capacity, the maximum theoretical output that can be produced. However, that’s just part of the story. In reality, no source outputs 100% of its capacity all or even most of the time. Evaluating actual output also requires taking the capacity factor into account.

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The capacity factor is the actual energy output produced over a period of time divided by the energy that would have been produced running at 100% capacity over that period. 

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There are a variety of factors that can reduce capacity factor, including:

• Intermittent source availability, such as solar power being unavailable at night and wind power on calm days

• Seasonal variations, such as hydropower during dry seasons

• Scheduled and unscheduled maintenance requiring shutdowns

• Reduced output due to low electricity demand, which is common for natural gas plants that are only used during high demand

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Wind power has a much lower capacity factor than most other energy sources. The global average is 0.22, compared to 0.46 for fossil fuels and 0.79 for nuclear. The only source with a lower capacity factor is solar at 0.11. Capacity factor does vary by region, with North America achieving higher factors than the world average, with 0.26 in the case of wind. (Bolson, 2022)

 

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This means that wind power installations require a much higher nameplate capacity for a given electrical output. This may seem like a disadvantage for wind power at first, but the economics work out favourably, largely due to there being no fuel cost at all. Onshore wind power has one of the lowest levelized costs of energy, ranging from $37 to $86 per MWh, similar to that of solar and significantly lower than gas and nuclear. (Lazard, 2025)

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The Key Details That Affect Wind Power Capacity Factor

 

Wind power capacity factor is influenced significantly by the availability of wind, without which a turbine cannot generate power. Wind turbines require a certain wind speed to operate, which varies based on the individual design. In general, wind power is viable in areas where the average wind velocity exceeds 4.17 m/s (15 km/h), which covers most of Canada. Wind turbines generate rated power at approximately 12 to 14 m/s. (Dehghani-Sanij, 2022)

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However, it’s not just the average wind speed that must be accounted for, as wind changes from day to day and moment to moment. Wind turbines first start rotating and generating power at their cut-in speed, which is typically around 3.5 m/s. As the wind speed rises, the turbine will output more power until it reaches its rated speed. From that point, higher wind speeds will not generate more power. If wind speed reaches the cut-out speed, typically around 25 m/s, the wind turbine shuts down to prevent damage to the rotor. (U.S. Department of Energy, 2024)

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Each wind turbine has its own controller, which monitors wind speed using an anemometer, along with turbine temperature and other operational data. The controller adjusts the generator torque and blade pitch to optimize output for the current wind conditions. As wind speed rises above the rated speed, the controller feathers the blades, turning them to reduce lift. Blades can pitch as much as 90°, putting their edge fully into the wind and reducing aerodynamic lift to near zero. Mechanical brakes can then hold the turbine in a stationary position. (Jonkman, 2009)

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Further reduction in capacity factor arises from the effect that individual turbines in a wind farm layout have on each other. As turbines extract energy from the wind, they leave a downstream wake that is slower and more turbulent. Depending on the layout, wake effects can lead to a 10 to 20% energy production loss. (Howland, 2019)

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Wind turbines require maintenance and downtime like any other piece of equipment, with a variety of potential issues requiring shutdown and repair. Electrical systems have the highest failure rate. However, gearbox failure leads to much higher downtime per incident. Availability for wind turbines in North America is approximately 96%, with technical failure having a smaller impact on capacity factor than wind variability and other sources. (Sheng, 2013)

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How Shifting Electrical Supply and Demand Affects Wind Capacity Factor

 

The intentional curtailment of power output from wind turbines by grid operators is another area that affects capacity factor. Power generation is continuously monitored and adjusted to meet instantaneous grid demand. When demand falls, generation must be reduced to match.

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Dispatchable natural gas and hydropower are typically the first sources to be reduced as demand starts to fall from its peak. Wind and solar are often the next sources to be reduced. They are flexible and easily ramped down. (IESO, 2026)

This starts with the grid operator determining that the current generation level and demand require a wind farm to reduce output, often through automated systems. The wind farm will then receive a lower active power setpoint. The overall farm controller system then allocates that reduced target across individual turbines. That could mean reducing output slightly across many turbines or shutting down individual turbines. (Bird, 2014)

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Alberta has reported constrained generation of 7.6% for combined wind and solar sources. However, this value varies widely by individual sites. The most constrained wind assets had as much as 30% of their potential generation constrained. (Alberta Market Surveillance Administrator, 2026)

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Potential Improvements in Wind Power Capacity Factor

 

There are many ongoing and potential future developments that stand to improve wind power capacity factors to increase reliability and lower energy costs. Turbine design is one of the most promising areas, with taller towers and longer blades raising capacity factors. For example, the move from an 80-meter hub to a 110-meter hub can improve the capacity factor by 2 to 4 percentage points. (Lantz, 2019)

Turbine designs that reduce specific power, which is the rated capacity divided by the rotor swept area, also stand to improve capacity factor. The larger rotor relative to the generator can capture energy in more moderate winds, which are more common than peak wind conditions. (Lantz, 2019)

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Energy storage is another promising area, as it can avoid available capacity being wasted when output is curtailed due to insufficient demand. Instead of shutting down turbines, energy can continue to be generated and stored for later use when demand rises. Grid-scale energy storage is a major priority for Canada, with proposed projects to increase capacity from 552 MW as of 2024 to 2,768 MW by 2030. (Canada Energy Regulator, 2025)

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Wind Power’s Place in Canada’s Energy Future

 

Although wind power is unlikely to displace the baseload generation provided by hydro and nuclear, it has an important and growing role to play in Canada’s sustainable electrical grid. It provides economical and low-emission electricity generation. While the inherent variability of wind power limits how much electricity a given turbine can generate, improvements in technology, controls, and energy storage stand to further improve capacity factor over the coming years. It’s clear that wind power has become an integral part of Canada’s grid and will only continue to grow from here.

 

References

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Alberta Market Surveillance Administrator. (2026). Wholesale Market Report: Q4 2025. 

Bird, L. (2014). Wind and Solar Energy Curtailment: Experience and Practices in the United States. National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

Bolson, N. (2022). Capacity factors for electrical power generation from renewable and nonrenewable sources. PNAS.

Canada Energy Regulator. (2025). Market Snapshot: Energy storage in Canada may multiply by 2030. Retrieved from https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/market-snapshots/2025/market-snapshot-energy-storage-in-canada-may-multiply-by-2030.html

Dehghani-Sanij, A. R. (2022). Assessment of current developments and future prospects of wind energy in Canada. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments.

Government of Canada. (2024). Pan-Canadian Wind Integration Study. Retrieved from Natural Resources Canada: https://natural-resources.canada.ca/funding-partnerships/pan-canadian-wind-integration-study

Howland, M. F. (2019). Wind farm power optimization through wake steering. PNAS.

IESO. (2026). Ontario’s Electricity Grid. Retrieved from https://www.ieso.ca/Learn/Ontario-Electricity-Grid/Supply-Mix-and-Generation

Jonkman, J. (2009). Definition of a 5-MW Reference Wind Turbine for Offshore System Development. National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

Lantz, E. (2019). Increasing Wind Turbine Tower Heights: Opportunities and Challenges. National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

Lazard. (2025). 2025 Levelized Cost of Energy+ Report. 

Sheng, S. (2013). Report on Wind Turbine Subsystem Reliability - A Survey of Various Databases. National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

U.S. Department of Energy. (2024, July 17). How Do Wind Turbines Survive Severe Weather and Storms? Retrieved from U.S. Department of Energy: https://www.energy.gov/cmei/wind/articles/how-do-wind-turbines-survive-severe-weather-and-storms